1.02.2008

Caucus predictions

Tomorrow night shortly after the Iowa caucuses close, we'll finally know the first answer to this painful year-long question. Let's dust off our crystal balls (El Gordo, any kind of balls are fine to use). Most accurate oracle gets to choose the next top-of-the-page quote. Tiebreaker: Give the winners' percentages. It's a lame-ass prize, but it's all I can think of. I'll start mine in the comments.

(Des Moines Register's latest poll results for all candidates.)

8 comments:

Grendel said...

1. Obama (35%)
2. Clinton
3. Edwards

1. Romney (33%)
2. Huckabee
3. McCain

cj said...

I sure hope you're right, Grendel -- on both sides. (I think Romney is even more beatable than Huckabee.)

But I've been reading a lot about how the Democratic caucuses (but not the Republican ones, where it's just a head count) have a rural bias. Supposedly, in 2004, it took 79 caucusers to elect one delegate in Johnson County, while in the most rural counties it took as little as 20 caucusers to elect a delegate. And the number of actual votes cast never gets reported -- only the delegate totals.

I haven't seen any breakdowns in the polls between rural and non-rural voters, but I can't help but think that Obama is weaker in the rural areas than elsewhere. So I'm trying to prepare myself for disappointing numbers. But I hope I'm wrong. I'll say:

1. Edwards 34%
2. Clinton
3. Obama

1. Huckabee 38%
2. Romney
3. McCain

cj said...

My 7-year-old daughter says I'm wrong. She says it will be:

1. obama 32%
2. edwards
3. hillary

1. huckabee 34%
2. mccain
3. romney

T-bone said...

Okay, I will say (and I hope I am way wrong):
1. Edwards 33%
2. Hillary
3. Obama

1. McCain 32%
2. Huckabee
3. Romney

Trevor Jackson said...

1. Edwards (34%)
2. Obama
3. Clinton

Spots 2 and 3 may flip depending on how many students come back to caucus, but ultimately Edwards' time in the state and his shoring up support in western counties are going to give him the state's delegates.

The big question is how much an Edwards win will matter. He'll really need to push whatever momentum the media grants him into getting a win in New Hampshire to stay competitive. If Obama or Clinton wins NH and Edwards doesn't pull SC or NV, he may not make it to February.

For the R's:
1. Huckabee (32%)
2. Romney
3. Paul

The pretend populism of Skittles Hucakbee matched with his extreme social conservatism will barely eke him past Palimpsest Romney. After that, Huck's done. NH Republicans like their fiscal conservatives more than they hate gay people. NH is a toss-up b/w Romney and McCain, but Romney's got the dough and the charm to take him all the way to the convention. He'll become the R's second-choice candidate enough times that they'll settle for him.

Ultimately, the Republican candidate will matter less to right-leaning voters than how much they hate the Democratic candidate. By November 2008, the D nominee will be the second coming of Josef Stalin.

SER said...

I am in the midst of attending campaign events galore! Yesterday: Michelle Obama and Hillary Clinton (separately, duh). Today: Barack Obama, Joe Biden, and Bill Richardson. Tomorrow: Chris Dodd. One observation: it is easier to attend these events without a baby. That said, the current director of the Workshop was at Obama today, and he picked up her baby. I had not been well positioned due to my own baby's disgruntlement a few minutes before Obama appeared in the overflow room.

So far, my favorite was Joe Biden, though I think I'll be caucusing for Obama. I'll post photos if I get my ass in gear between campaign events.

Anyway, my predictions:

1. Edwards (32)
2. Obama (31)
3. Clinton (30)

1. Huckabee (37)
2. Romney (29)
3. McCain (a surprising 20)

I hope those don't total more than 100 - that would be embarrassing.

On another topic, I am flabbergasted that some people are up in arms over out-of-state students participating in the caucuses. First, what people should be outraged over is that only, like, 8% of eligible Iowa voters go to the caucuses. Second, I went to college in New Jersey, where I never had any intention of living after college, and when I voted in the 1992 presidential election there, I also voted in the state and local elections. Should I have voted absentee in Texas instead? Poppycock!

cj said...

I brought my 7-year-old, my 5-year-old, and my 3-year-old to see Obama last week in Coralville. All I could think about was how many fire code violations were occurring simultaneously in that insanely overstuffed junior high school gym. I had to ply the kids continuously with granola bars, Cheerios, and sippy cups to keep them from getting rowdy. It didn't help that they could only see Obama when I held them up on my shoulders. We lasted about fifteen minutes into Obama's talk, but I'm glad we went.

And you're totally right about those college students. They *live* here -- I thought we settled that a long time ago.

By the way, I want to clarify my prediction. I'm predicting that Edwards will win in the delegate count, but I predict that Obama will win the popular vote handily. (Too bad they don't report who wins the popular vote, so we'll never know.)

Grendel said...

Thanks for playing. Aaaand, CJ's 7-year-old daughter is the winner! She was the only one to predict both winners correctly. She even got the top three D order right and predicted the top three R's, with only Romney and McCain in a different order. She gets to decide the EG quote now or whenever she wants. Nice work!