Primary predictions

Tomorrow night shortly after the New Hampshire polls close, we'll finally know the second answer to this painful year-long question. Let's do it again! This time, give percentages for the top three finishers in each party. Same lame-ass prize.

Summary of Dem polls.
Summary of Rep polls.


Grendel said...

Obama: 42%
Clinton: 30%
Edwards: 24%

McCain: 37%
Romney: 29%
Huckabee: 14%

Trevor Jackson said...

I agree with the stack, but I'd adjust the numbers closer:

Obama: 40%
Clinton: 32%
Edwards: 28%

Richardson's out after NH, but these three D's are going to battle the rest of the winter and probably all spring, into the summer. HRC's going to win a couple states to stay alive. It's going to get uglier than it's already gotten.

McCain: 34%
Romney: 32%
Huckabee: 18%

No one drops till after SC. That's when Foghorn Leghorn calls it quits. Cooter Huckabee lasts until NV, where the idea of a consumption tax gets him literally tarred and feathered.

SER said...

Obama: 41%
Clinton: 33%
Edwards: 22%

Clinton manages to win a few big states on Feb. 5, but Obama clearly has the most popular support. Due to the weird rules of delegate allocation, however, Clinton's stash of superdelegates means she might win on a technicality. (Note: I have no idea what I'm talking about. If you want more details on the superdelegate thing, consult the Internets.) A legal tangle reminiscent of Bush/Gore 2000 takes place in the primary season. By November, everyone is so exhausted by it all that they forget to vote.

McCain: 35%
Romney: 32%
Huckles: 20%

Suddenly thrust into frontrunner position, McCain again loses his personality (such as it is), allowing Romney to look vivacious by comparison. Still, neither is a match for Huckabee, whose commanding presence (I'm serious) at debates and on late-night shows makes GOP voters realize that he's actually a devilish force to be reckoned with causes him to garner support from unlikely quarters, since they just want to win at any cost and think that he has a better chance than the other candidates, all of whom either look liked death warmed over or pedophiles.

T-bone said...

Obama: 37%
Clinton: 33%
Edwards: 30%

McCain: 35%
Hucks: 34%
Romns: 29%

Today, I think with the election and the Superbowl coming up, it is time to get cable tv!

Grendel said...

A bit of trivia: the last time a Dem candidate won both Iowa and New Hampshire and did not end up winning the nomination was in 1972 -- 36 years ago. Ed Muskie won both, but the nomination went to McGovern. Kerry, Gore, and Carter all won both and went on to the nomination. Clinton won both in 96 -- but neither in 92.

Brando said...

Obama: 42%
Edwards: 27%
Clinton: 24%

I think the waterworks Clinton sported will hurt her. People will either see it as a sign of weaknesses or a Clinton tactic to make her seem more "human," because the Clintons never just break down a bit from exhaustion and frustration (that last part was laced with sarcasm).

McCain: 35%
Romney: 32%
Applebees: 22%

McCain's message seems to be tailor-made for the Live Free or Die state, but Romney does well enough to not give up. Huckabee suffers a setback because, well, he's Mike Huckabee.

cj said...

I'm turning the prognosticating over to the second-grader from here on in. She has come up with the following:

Obama 39
Clinton 30
Edwards 20

McCain 35
Romney 30
Huckabee 13

Incidentally, she says that both Paul and Giuliani will come in at 10%. I hope she's right: it gives me hope that I might get to see Giuliani come in fifth, behind Ron Paul.

Grendel said...

Nobody predicted a Hillary win -- but going beyond that, it looks like once again CJ's daughter has come closest to predicting the results. She got the Republican field all in order, each one within two points. On the D side, she came closest to Edwards's final percentage and missed Obama's by 3. Moreover, she predicted Rudy within 1 and Romney within 2. Congrats again -- truly amazing. Perhaps she should apply to be a TV pundit.

Trevor Jackson said...

Holy cow, right? Polls shmolls.

Well, I stand behind the "it's going to get uglier" comment and the "not decided for a while" bit. I'd hazard a guess that it would be the day after Feb 5 (some say Feb 6 but it's debatable) that we'll know, but jeez, if we can't count on our political commentators to tell us what to believe, what can we count on?

Grendel said...

btw, send that quote, spawn of cj!