Possibly final primary predictions

What do you think will happen tomorrow? I'll go out on a limb and say Obama wins Texas, Ohio, and Vermont, and loses Rhode Island by 4%. In this way he puts the thing to bed. Clinton concession by Friday. And ... um ... free beer everywhere.


SER said...

I say Obama wins Texas, but his real advantage is in delegate count, not popular vote. (As you may have read, Texas has some rather complex delegate-allocation rules.) Clinton wins Ohio by eight points. Obama wins VT; Clinton wins RI.

Clinton resolves to stay in the race since she's still polling ahead in 4/22's PA primary. Both candidates continue to raise vast quantities of money that could, in aggregate, be used to pay off everyone's debt. Okay, not everyone's. Some people's. Or part of everyone's. Didn't Lincoln say something like that?

Anyway, it all comes down to the South Dakota primary on 6/3, and I think that all you have to do in SD to vote is just show up somewhere - ie, you don't have to register. This results in all kinds of accusations of fraud, and the validity of the overall delegate count is questioned, which means it does all come down to the superdelegates at the convention in Denver.

But I really hope I'm wrong this time.

cj said...

The press has just been wailing on Obama the past few days -- you can tell how much they want to draw this thing out. I like SER's predictions for tonight, though.

But if I were a Clinton supporter (or superdelegate, or staff member, or endorser, or donor), I'd be out the door Wednesday morning, no matter what she wins tonight. There's just no way she's going to pull ahead in pledged delegates, ever, and if she gets the nomination some other way it will be a disaster. After all, it was her aura of "inevitability" that led the bigwigs to sign on with her to begin to with; now she is utterly "evitable." Politicians are nothing if not cravenly rational and calculating, no?

Grendel said...

Take this for what it's worth, but Sunday night I dreamed I was watching a horse race. Suddenly a giraffe ran onto the field, being chased by a very large lion, with men swinging off it tied to ropes. The lion gained and gained on the giraffe and just as it was sinking its teeth into that long neck I woke up.

Horse race = primary contest?
Giraffe = Obama (comes from Kenya)?
Lion = ?? Clinton? Seems like it would be a "big dog" -- but then the female dream equivalent might be a cat, eh? The lion was male though. McCain?

kclou said...

i think obama will win texas (barely) and vermont, and hillary will win ohio (barely) and rhode island. hillary will take the split as an affirmation and draw this out, at least, until pennsylvania in late april. the mccain campaign will try to stay in the news by publicly auditioning vp candidates.

Trevor Jackson said...

It's worth noting that Pennsylvania's primary is as far away from today as today was from South Carolina and Nevada's day of reckoning.

That is a loooong time in terms of this nomination cycle.

Pennsylvania will get about the same amount of attention Iowa got, except uglier. That state's economy (particularly its media markets) is pleading for Texas and Ohio to draw this thing out.

Meanwhile, John McCain flies around in his can't-touch-me fighter jet and fires at each of them from all sides. This has got to stop.

cj said...

In support of my theory, I notice that DailyKos is reporting that Obama has 50 superdelegates ready to endorse him "before too long." Even if it's true, though, I wonder if those endorsements hinge on at least winning Texas . . .

El Gordo de Amore said...

Today the local newscast opened with "Rhode Island takes center stage today ..."

Poor little Rhody, how I'm beginning to love your little delusional quahog-filled soul.

For instance, as far as I can tell, Hilary has been wearing a sombrero for weeks now, and seems to have gone everywhere from Cut and Shoot to Terlingua. As opposed to here at the university, where Chelsea came for 30 minutes for her mom, and Kumar (of the genius "Harold and Kumar" series) came for Obama. I was really excited about Kumar.

But as far as Texas predictions, I think it might go for Hilary. "Hope" doesn't really play well in Texas -- not that we're hopeless, but just that we seem to have an intimate history with the idea of the snake oil salesman, probably because of our higher than average percentage of shady evangelists. The only big idea we really like to hear about is how great Texas is. The rest of y'all can bite us.

Remember the Alamo!

It remembers you.

Trevor Jackson said...

RE: My earlier comment. I stand corrected on the primary calendar.

Wyoming votes on Saturday (why don't more states have weekend voting?), and Mississippi votes on Tuesday.

Obama can widen the delegate gap with both of these contests, but it still barrels on for another six weeks to Pennsylvania.

The math is the math. Clinton's only chance is to convince superdelegates that Obama is a bad general election candidate. Which sucks. Because those kinds of arguments can easily become self-fulfilling should BO get the nomination.

Well, 8 years of Bush was pretty bad. How much worse could it get under President McCain?

Don't answer that.

T-bone said...

Oh Texas, oh Ohio! I heard today about republicans in Texas voting for Clinton just to be mean. Could this be true? I am so depressed today and liable to believe anything. I have a feeling that there is no way Obama will win PA. He'll win the cities, of course, but in the middle of the state and in the suburbs it will be Clinton all the way. It is clear that Hillary and I need to put our personality differences aside.

Grendel said...

More on my dream... check out John Hagee at around 1:05 into this video. That lion -- "the Anti-Christ System," which he later calls "The Beast" -- is EXACTLY the lion from my dream. I might add that I did read the Book of Revelation obsessively as a young person. Rev. 4:7 says the first Beast is a lion... spooky!