Exit polling

Remember how excited we all were in 2004 when the exit polls leaked?  Nate Silver from 538(translating the info from Pollster.com) gives us the lowdown on why not to pay attention to them this year.  Interesting stuff.  (And 538 is a great site, for those of you who haven't yet discovered it.)

Regardless of what the exit polls say, I am excited and hopeful.  NPR says statewide turnout in CA is expected to be 85%.  NO ON 8!


HGF said...

Great link. As electronic-vote tampering has become a part of elections, I've wanted exit polls to raise a red flag when the e-voting was tweaked. Or, I used to want to rely on them. What a bunch of bunk.

HGF said...

Here's a suggestion for where to look instead of exit polls: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/keith-thomson/the-most-accurate-electio_b_140181.html.

Related: over at the IEM's winner-take-all-market, shares in Obama-Biden now cost 92 cents, the contract to pay 1 dollar.