10.31.2008

The least scary Halloween in 12 years

For nervous pollwatchers... a simple equation remains:

Kerry states
+ Iowa
+ New Mexico
+ any other state
_________________
President Obama

He is comfortably ahead in every Kerry state. Here are Pollster.com's charts for Iowa and New Mexico:





What about that one last state? Well, Obama is also ahead or tied in Ohio, Florida, Colorado, Nevada, Virginia, Indiana, Missouri, North Dakota, and North Carolina. McCain has to win ALL NINE of those. Obama has to win ONE.



















As if that weren't enough, two additional Bush states seem to be in reach: Montana and Georgia.



14 comments:

Trevor Jackson said...

Thanks for the perspective, Grendel. There is no tightening. Nor spoon.

Man, North Dakota did NOT like McCain's response to the credit crisis. That's the most amazing chart.

Grendel said...

I know! Though it looks like it was just one poll that gave McCain that big initial spike.

But just look at Colorado, Nevada, and Virginia. Can anyone tell me why McCain thinks he can win all three of those (plus all the others)? Obama is even safely over 50% in all three. And he's nearly at 50% in Ohio.

msf said...

thanks for posting this. i've been trying to tell people this since, like, august, and all anyone who enjoys the fear but isn't quite as obsessed as i am will look at is popular vote numbers. i'm as paranoid as the next girl after 2000 and 2004, but still...

Grendel said...

As David Plouffe said, "The national tracking polls are meaningless." He said they do not even look at those. They do, on the other hand, have math PhDs studying voting patterns district by district in every state.

cj said...

Being cautious is one thing, but being irrational and superstitious is another. Every time I try to assure people that Obama is going to win (and handily, I might add!), I tend to get a response along the lines of "Don't you put no hex on this election!" So much for our image as the party of pointy-headed intellectuals...

Trevor Jackson said...

Ha ha, cj. I've been avoiding jinx-talk myself, knocking on wood, the works. There's a short post on TPM yesterday that asked if there was a support group for the people who hoped the polls were wrong in 2004 and who are just as worried they're wrong this year.

Why McCain has gone all in on Pennsylvania is as big a mystery as why Palin will be in Dubuque today. That and McCain's Cedar Falls appearance last weekend are the things that freak me out. What do they think about Iowa that the polls have solidly contradicted for months?

I can't wait to get a good night's sleep again.

Grendel said...

MSF: You're a poker player. Ask them: Would you rather have to win nine out of nine consecutive hands or one out of nine?

Grendel said...

Trevor: Even stranger -- why is Obama campaigning in Iowa?

cj said...

Yeah! I can almost see why McCain would campaign in Iowa -- after all, he can't win unless he takes at least some states where he's currently well behind in the polls. But Obama's appearance in Iowa is a mystery. Do these people know something we don't know?

Trevor Jackson said...

It's a good question. One reason behind his appearance this late in the game is that it was rescheduled from last week after he had to leave to be with his grandma.

As for why there was an event scheduled for last week, I don't know. It's been a while since he's been here, but I think there may be some internal polls--maybe from western Iowa?--that suggest an appearance was warranted.

Grendel said...

Trev, my contact-challenged eyes failed me. There are at four polls up there.

Hey, I'm going to see you soon! Um, I'm sitting on the floor listening to Jerry Garcia and David Grisman. They go there and they get there.

kclou said...

Georgia being in play blows my mind. People talk a lot about Virginia, and I voted early in Virginia, and I'm very excited for Virginia. But that transition, especially in the DC suburbs, has been in the works for a while.

Who saw Georgia being this close?

Trevor Jackson said...

McCain's camp says they've got an internal poll showing a 1-pt gap in Iowa. But the DM Register called it a 17-point gap here with 6 percent still undecided. The Register's poll has always been right. They got the caucus right.

On the question of who can keep the country safe, Obama has a 2-point edge over McCain. Seven percent decided on a candidate after Wall Street melted down.

KC, you're right about Virginia's trend, and I'm just as surprised as you about Georgia. Montana? North Carolina? Hell, Arizona? C'mon, Tuesday.

Grendel said...

Interesting to note, now that the election's over, that Obama won 7 of those 9 contests, losing only North Dakota (by a lot) and Missouri (barely). Probably his most amazing achievement was winning 44-years-in-the-red Indiana -- a state Bush won by 20 points -- followed by an impressive win in North Carolina, the first for a Democrat in 32 years. He also came close in Montana (losing by 3) and Georgia (falling short by 5), suggesting the redrawn map still has room to grow.